\n It is unclear how this will translate into seats given the increase in the number of electorates that are three-way contests, rather than coming down to a fight between Labor and the Coalition. Pollster Shaun Ratcliff told Guardian Australia that the latest polls show the Coalition “going backwards” in a selection of key seats he has been tracking, after initial polls in February had the Coalition ahead.
“,”elementId”:”02cf2626-daac-44d9-81fa-fdcada7eddba”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
You can find more granular breakdowns of the polls, including by demography, on our tracking page.
“,”elementId”:”e2e4d63b-acf8-4980-8b9c-0d34b49545dc”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1746223749000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”18.09 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1746225943000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”18.45 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1746225925000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”18.45 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”18.45″,”title”:”Final polls show Labor in lead”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Josh Nicholas”,”imageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2021/03/10/Josh_Nicholas.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=4cd1265b71d04b8a39698abec72c0e7c”,”largeImageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2021/03/10/Josh_Nicholas_new.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=959b84eca0c4ff5bcd3a09ec9f9bd146″}],”primaryDateLine”:”Sat 3 May 2025 10.21 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Fri 2 May 2025 18.09 EDT”},{“id”:”6814b5a78f088a65239d0457″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Somewhat further afield, Australians have already voted, Emily Wind reports:
“,”elementId”:”e163404e-0ade-4c1e-99c6-19ee0b6ff950″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
In the leadup to election day, Australians have cast their ballots in a number of remote locations and even from overseas – but none as far south as the 100-odd expeditioners currently working in Antarctica.
“,”elementId”:”714910e4-1ef4-4aa4-ac5d-611abcb896b2″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Expeditioners working at Australia’s Antarctic and sub-Antarctic stations were able to cast their vote by telephone – a process typically reserved for voters who are blind or have low vision – with no physical ballot booth setup this year.
“,”elementId”:”20e9c4ae-a3fe-4ae8-9214-7dd00c84cfe0″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Voting opened on 22 April, with expeditioners able to vote early or on election day. But, unlike others, they won’t be fined if they do not vote, according to the Australian Electoral Commission.
“,”elementId”:”0eecbcca-dc96-4391-9047-752c2dec5e4f”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
The AEC says Australians travelling to work in Antarctica need to register as an Antarctic elector before leaving the country – with “Antarctic” including the Australian Antarctic Territory, the Territory of Heard Island and McDonald Islands, Macquarie Island, and a ship at sea in transit to or from Antarctica.
“,”elementId”:”7d8ef0c2-0b80-4c35-af55-0443636d27ba”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Arrangements were put in place for expeditioners on the RSV Nuyina in case it arrived back later than scheduled (on 2 May, the day before the election).
“,”elementId”:”f550b2d1-5e36-4ab4-9e33-434bb40f27b9″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1746223749000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”18.09 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1746225831000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”18.43 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1746225262000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”18.34 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”18.34″,”title”:”How did Australians in Antarctica vote?”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Emily Wind”,”imageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2022/08/23/Emily_Wind,_L.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=3f9b3d5899644d064c306afad3beee3c”,”largeImageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2022/08/23/Emily_Wind,_L.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=81923e28b0832fbb40212c001c6f3974″}],”primaryDateLine”:”Sat 3 May 2025 10.21 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Fri 2 May 2025 18.09 EDT”},{“id”:”681543038f088a65239d0b18″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
It is just past 8am here in Sydney, and the polling booths are officially open!
“,”elementId”:”56342497-bdec-4f22-adb6-1db2c8cec6b1″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Voters can lodge their ballots between 8am to 6pm today.
“,”elementId”:”a59ecc12-0f7f-48fb-a3c1-3b01b4e34bec”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
For a refresher on when, where and how to vote, here is our 2025 voting guide with everything you need to know.
“,”elementId”:”858496e2-f08c-4e37-9942-84ce9033fc99″},{“displayCredit”:true,”_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.ImageBlockElement”,”role”:”inline”,”media”:{“allImages”:[{“index”:0,”fields”:{“aspectRatio”:”5:3″,”height”:”4759″,”width”:”7932″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/7932.jpg”},{“index”:1,”fields”:{“aspectRatio”:”5:3″,”isMaster”:”true”,”height”:”4759″,”width”:”7932″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg”},{“index”:2,”fields”:{“aspectRatio”:”5:3″,”height”:”1200″,”width”:”2000″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/2000.jpg”},{“index”:3,”fields”:{“aspectRatio”:”5:3″,”height”:”600″,”width”:”1000″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/1000.jpg”},{“index”:4,”fields”:{“aspectRatio”:”5:3″,”height”:”300″,”width”:”500″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/500.jpg”},{“index”:5,”fields”:{“aspectRatio”:”5:3″,”height”:”84″,”width”:”140″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/140.jpg”}]},”elementId”:”4cbe1bd7-0734-4542-9136-71c20ffb5c0a”,”imageSources”:[{“weighting”:”inline”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=3df4213a6f89e7b116059f6717c25cec”,”width”:620},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=620&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=1b57617c701eb83f5d45b2dd8eca8e4f”,”width”:1240},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=605&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=5eec599da1a93d749797e3adfe711b66″,”width”:605},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=605&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=9781edf7d6aab47e4049f172eef8e034″,”width”:1210},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=445&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=44c0cd330fc3a5824f1b7ef75f85d372″,”width”:445},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=3360d0a94126369ffab020ece9d96647″,”width”:890}]},{“weighting”:”thumbnail”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=140&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=4e3a26d66f5e321814c039f7c5b2069c”,”width”:140},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=140&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=f9ee02c4fb3b18368a5c7a7b694040fe”,”width”:280},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=120&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=a7e3875364be074fe3c1cafa30539684″,”width”:120},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=120&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=48d4137f53c3267e75d2f5204a16f4ff”,”width”:240}]},{“weighting”:”supporting”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=380&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=873d8d45ab043fbf7aa0a62dc3e3ae83″,”width”:380},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=380&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=f1d9fa8bada50555bb01a1edb31fdd31″,”width”:760},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=4d42434d2099e0e09091e883698ecabc”,”width”:300},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=300&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=bc02c84bce1c8db8e422f9d15cae9b9e”,”width”:600},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=3df4213a6f89e7b116059f6717c25cec”,”width”:620},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=620&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=1b57617c701eb83f5d45b2dd8eca8e4f”,”width”:1240},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=605&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=5eec599da1a93d749797e3adfe711b66″,”width”:605},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=605&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=9781edf7d6aab47e4049f172eef8e034″,”width”:1210},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=445&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=44c0cd330fc3a5824f1b7ef75f85d372″,”width”:445},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=3360d0a94126369ffab020ece9d96647″,”width”:890}]},{“weighting”:”showcase”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=860&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=275419f7914bb9652cd31ca02dade643″,”width”:860},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=860&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=bf1489cc4f7f75d6a5c88ecf80c41d6f”,”width”:1720},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=780&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=2fd86d8abc4d5c7c537a9a8b2834af95″,”width”:780},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=780&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=d99b091a22d2dd5b69b7e4fd48c9eb2d”,”width”:1560},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=3df4213a6f89e7b116059f6717c25cec”,”width”:620},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=620&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=1b57617c701eb83f5d45b2dd8eca8e4f”,”width”:1240},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=605&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=5eec599da1a93d749797e3adfe711b66″,”width”:605},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=605&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=9781edf7d6aab47e4049f172eef8e034″,”width”:1210},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=445&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=44c0cd330fc3a5824f1b7ef75f85d372″,”width”:445},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=3360d0a94126369ffab020ece9d96647″,”width”:890}]},{“weighting”:”halfwidth”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=3df4213a6f89e7b116059f6717c25cec”,”width”:620},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=620&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=1b57617c701eb83f5d45b2dd8eca8e4f”,”width”:1240},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=605&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=5eec599da1a93d749797e3adfe711b66″,”width”:605},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=605&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=9781edf7d6aab47e4049f172eef8e034″,”width”:1210},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=445&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=44c0cd330fc3a5824f1b7ef75f85d372″,”width”:445},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=3360d0a94126369ffab020ece9d96647″,”width”:890}]},{“weighting”:”immersive”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=1900&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=230d6299fed153f39f0a6eaa3e8bc27f”,”width”:1900},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=1900&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=e125cdcdc9f1b6fb2ad891d2fe055c38″,”width”:3800},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=1300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=73b5640828c458687245aa3836c01d34″,”width”:1300},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=1300&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=bc11c7e667b3cf900bed07cd4cae1bf6″,”width”:2600},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=1140&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=2f3159352b0e411a66bc8f9493a6c44a”,”width”:1140},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=1140&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=4c853cded7fb5b31fbd23884ffaf6601″,”width”:2280},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=980&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=4459ca0d8acab779597167fc01768f65″,”width”:980},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=980&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=e6b663a2634548201684aef27b00a8f4″,”width”:1960},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=740&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=511a98aa9935a916a242072085ae9cc0″,”width”:740},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=740&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=10ac52ce088df7d1d0a4a5d18522936d”,”width”:1480},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=660&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=5de091c3e79174cee43e11ffa2c0750c”,”width”:660},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=660&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=d8bea3dc622ef20fb3eb258aa644f2d7″,”width”:1320},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=480&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=bf0afebf0fa52f4f687e94a03f48e0bf”,”width”:480},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e6a4335e79489356c5e96b727acbc8bfbd07dde6/0_264_7932_4759/master/7932.jpg?width=480&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=356f6007ff4812d4e813a2b4d40207c2″,”width”:960}]}],”data”:{“alt”:”People queue to vote in Australia’s general election at a polling station in the suburb of Marrickville in Sydney on 3 May, 2025.”,”caption”:”People queue to vote in Australia’s general election at a polling station in the suburb of Marrickville in Sydney on 3 May, 2025. “,”credit”:”Photograph: Saeed Khan/AFP/Getty Images”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1746223875000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”18.11 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1746225975000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”18.46 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1746224127000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”18.15 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”18.15″,”title”:”Polls open in eastern states”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Sat 3 May 2025 10.21 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Fri 2 May 2025 18.09 EDT”}],”filterKeyEvents”:false,”id”:”key-events-carousel-mobile”,”absoluteServerTimes”:false,”renderingTarget”:”Web”}”>
Key events
What we learned; election night 2025
Krishani Dhanji
What. A. Night. I don’t think many of us can say we saw that result coming.
That’s where we’ll leave you for tonight, thank you so much for following us on the blog.
Here’s what we learned this Saturday 3 May:
-
Labor has achieved an emphatic win, with strong swings for the party across all states and territories.
-
Labor has secured majority government, securing at least 86 seats.
-
Anthony Albanese was overjoyed and became emotional during his victory speech, promising to “govern for every Australian”.
-
Peter Dutton has lost his seat of Dickson to the Labor challenger, Ali France.
-
Dutton apologised for the result, conceding “it is not our night”, as Liberal party faithful say there will need to be a hard look at what went wrong for the LNP, which recorded a historic loss.
-
The Coalition will also need to select a new leader.
-
The Greens have lost two of their three seats in Queensland, but have celebrated their “highest” number of votes across the country.
-
Zali Steggall, Allegra Spender, Monique Ryan and Sophie Scamps have retained their seats but the picture is still unclear for some of the other incumbent teal independents. Zoe Daniel and Kate Chaney are ahead in their seats. Not affiliated with the Climate 200 movement, but the independent Dai Le also looks to be ahead in her western Sydney seat of Fowler.
Which seats are still in doubt tonight?
Kevin Bonham
The overall picture of a landslide re-election for the Albanese Labor government, the first federal government to serve a full first term and then increase its majority, is clear enough, but just a note on seats in doubt.
Currently the ABC is listing the following as in doubt: Bean, Bradfield, Brisbane, Bullwinkel, Melbourne, Fairfax, Wills, Richmond, Griffith, Fowler, Ryan, Longman, Calare, Franklin and popping back into the frame, surprisingly, Goldstein.
Some of these are probably set to “in doubt” just as a caution when the seat does strange things early in the night.
With Calare, the theory might be that the second independent Kate Hook could catch Andrew Gee; I don’t think that is realistic. With Franklin, Julie Collins is clearly too far in front.
Seats where there are complications with independents that I think we need to see more in include at least Monash, Fremantle, Calwell, Forrest and Flinders, though it is common for scenarios with independents winning from low primaries to fall over with more counting, especially as independents do badly on pre-polls.
The ABC is projecting the Greens ahead in Richmond but that would require a 50-50 preference split, which seems very unlikely. Petrie and Forde are still reasonably close but projected leads of 52-48 and above with this much counted don’t fall over often.
While the swing in pre-polls does seem to be less than the swing in day votes, it is not greatly less, so that doesn’t offer much hope for trailing incumbents. At present, I think Labor is very likely to gain Brisbane and Griffith.
Bandt hails Greens’ ‘highest ever vote in history’, despite loss of two seats
The Greens are celebrating their “highest ever vote in history”, despite having lost two seats in Brisbane, and suffering a swing against them in Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne.
In a statement, Bandt said:
Tonight, millions of people across the country have voted for the Greens – more than ever before in history.
More people than ever before backed the Greens’ big solutions for the housing, cost of living, and climate crisis.
Bandt congratulated Albanese on his win, and took some credit for Peter Dutton’s loss in his own seat.
The Greens leader also explained the loss of Brisbane (formerly held by Stephen Bates) and Griffith (formerly held by Max Chandler-Mather), blaming the Liberals.
The historic collapse in the Liberal vote has meant that Labor will win the seats of Griffith with Liberal preferences, and Brisbane too, even as our vote held firm.
He then paid tribute to Chandler-Mather and Bates:
There’s never been a first term MP who has had the impact Max Chandler-Mather has, putting the rental crisis in the spotlight, winning $3.5 billion for social housing, and feeding thousands out of his own pocket. This is not the last we’ve seen of him.
Stephen has been an incredible voice for Brisbane, and the millions of young people left behind by Labor and Liberal.
‘You’ve got Whitlam, Hawke and Albo’: Marles celebrates Labor’s win
The deputy PM, Richard Marles, was feeling nervous and pessimistic early on tonight, but no doubt that would have quickly dissipated as the count started rolling in.
Marles, at his party in his seat of Corio, said it was an “overwhelming” result, and the party is “really excited”.
Three-quarters of incumbent governments across the democratic world since the pandemic have lost. So to be able to win, and win in such an emphatic way in this circumstance, I think is enormous credit to our government, but particularly Anthony Albanese.
He’s been underestimated throughout his life. He is now of history in terms of being a Labor leader who has been elected twice. You’ve got Whitlam and Hawke and Albo.
It’s been a tough night for the LNP, which will spend the next few weeks and months analysing what went wrong.
How have those within the party responded? Ben Smee has this analysis:
Antony Green farewelled as the ‘Goat’ of election calling
This is Antony Green’s final election broadcast with the ABC, after an illustrious career spanning many decades.
The ABC is playing a farewell package for him, with former prime ministers – Labor and Liberal – reflecting on the “Goat” of election calling.
He gets a big applause from the panel and heartfelt tributes.
And he jokes that he’ll give his tie to the Australian museum of democracy in Canberra.
Ali France claims historic victory over Peter Dutton in Dickson
Andrew Messenger
Labor’s Ali France has claimed a historic victory over Peter Dutton in the west Brisbane seat of Dickson.
It’s the first time an opposition leader has been unseated in 125 years of federal elections.
A raucous crowd of Labor volunteers and MPs chanted her name as they waited several minutes for her to enter.
Her 18-minute speech started with an acknowledgment of country – which drew a huge cheer. From there she spoke about her three attempts at the electorate, and paid tribute to mentors including the Queensland opposition leader, Steven Miles, who was in the room.
She said some of those in the room had been campaigning against Dutton since he was elected in 2001.
She also paid tribute to her son, Henry, who died of leukaemia last year. Many Labor faithful audibly sobbed or cried out.
“I wish you were here,” she said.
He was so insistent that I don’t give up even to care for him. He was looking forward to being a part of this campaign, a part of this celebration, and I can tell you Henry you were.
Every time it felt too hard or too much, I thought of you and your courage and bravery and happiness and positivity to the very end.
Luca Ittimani
Labor figures differ on how much influence Trump had on federal election
We’ve heard a lot about the influence Donald Trump has had in this campaign. So how much credit do Labor figures give him for their win?
Labor’s housing minister, Clare O’Neil, has downplayed the role of the US president at the 2025 election, pointing to the primacy of cost-of-living concerns. She told Channel Seven:
I think the Trump aspect has been in the background. But the biggest thing that has been going on in this election was the cost of living. That is the vast majority of the doorknock conversations you would have with people. And the truth is that Labor came to this election with a better answer.
Peter Dutton did a good job throughout the term exploiting grievances but when it actually came to the moment for him to explain how he was going to address the concerns that he was raising, he had nothing to say.
The former Labor minister Bill Shorten, though, said the global uncertainty that has come out of the new American administration convinced voters to turn to the devil they know:
There are a lot of Australians uneasy about President Trump’s policies and there has been a flight to certainty. Love him or hate him, Albo and the team, they’re there, and they have had the policy. This is one of the first elections I’ve ever seen where the shadow of foreign affairs has really loomed large over the domestic debate and the Libs turned a bit Maga-esque in some of their statements at exactly the wrong time.
Nick Evershed
The seats where independents are looking close
We’re predicting that Andrew Gee will win Calare. Gee originally won Calare for the Nationals in 2022, but left the party over its stance on the voice to parliament.
Gee contested this election as an independent, and is now leading by 7% on two-party preferred.
There are a number of other independent challengers who are looking very close, and we are keeping an eye on Alex Dyson in Wannon, Nicolette Boele in Bradfield, and Caz Heise in Cowper.
Luca Ittimani
Bill Shorten’s advice to Peter Dutton on how to respond to an election loss
What do you do after losing an election as opposition leader?
According to the former Labor minister Bill Shorten, “don’t take it personally”.
It’s a question Shorten has some experience in answering, after leading Labor to back-to-back defeats in 2016 and 2019, and he reflected on Channel Seven earlier tonight:
I know where Peter Dutton is going to be tonight. To him and his family, it’s really tough and he has given it his all.
Shorten offered the outgoing Coalition leader some free advice:
I do think the policies were bad, and I do think the campaign was bad, but one thing Peter Dutton shouldn’t do is, when he goes home and sees his family … and it’s hard to do this, but he shouldn’t take it personally. That’s easy to say at a distance, but it happens to be true. When they are piling on you, Peter, they are piling on your nuclear policy, or your work from home or whatever, but he and his family have just got to take some time just to breathe, OK, and not to feel it. It’s not about him.
McGrath says it’s a ‘brutal night’ for LNP as Chalmers says he’s ‘grateful’
Giving his final thoughts to the ABC panel, James McGrath says it’s been “a brutal night” for the LNP, and the party will have to take stock of the losses, and figure out what it does next.
We have been down before, we will rebuild, we will come back and we will hold the government to account … We have got to make sure we take stock of why we lost this election and have a serious review into those reasons.
Jim Chalmers, meanwhile, says he’s “grateful” and promises to deal with the “substantial challenges” facing the country.
We approach the second term with humility and we know that we were not re-elected because we had solved every challenge, but because Australians thought that we were better placed to meet the moment.
Labor on track for 90 seats, Guardian election analyst says
Kevin Bonham
As the night goes on, the election is looking more and more of a blowout, with Labor tracking for about 90 seats. It will be a long time before the two-party-preferred vote settles down but it currently seems to be around the mid-50s.
Either it will turn out that Labor’s vote has been very well distributed to win Liberal seats, or it will turn out that the polls were somewhere near as far off as in 2019 but in the opposite direction.
Polls don’t get criticised as much when they miss on the margin but get the right winner, but the final polls were very clustered around the range 52-53 two-party preferred, with a few even below that range, and this is not at this stage looking like a good night for polling.
It remains the case that losses Labor might suffer in their own seats look like being just a seat or two in freak crossbench scenarios, if anything at all. As well as all its losses to Labor, the Coalition is still in close battles to hold Bradfield, and Flinders and Monash is still a mess. (Plus contrary to an error in my comments earlier, Andrew Gee has retained Calare after defecting from the Nationals.)
Meaningful figures are now arriving from WA. First, the Liberals appear to be losing Moore where the disendorsement of Ian Goodenough and him running as an independent was never going to help them.
The new notionally Labor seat of Bullwinkel looks very close between Labor and Liberal.
In Forrest, indie Sue Chapman is running a fairly close third behind Labor, but the Greens how-to-vote card recommended Labor above Chapman, which makes things harder for Chapman.
In Fremantle, Kate Hulett is currently second and is a long way behind Josh Wilson, but the Liberals did recommend preferences to her above Labor this time; I suspect that as the count goes on Hulett will do less well than in the day votes and the mountain may be too steep, but we’ll see.